Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-02-07 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 51.4%

PIT: 48.6%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.03

PIT: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 40%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • NYR at home vs PIT: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	8	0	0.34
1	PIT	16	0	0.89
2	NYR	14	0	0.58
2	PIT	21	1	1.47
3	NYR	15	0	0.88
3	PIT	1	0	0.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1