New York Islanders at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-02-07 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 3 New York Islanders

Win Probability

WPG: 50.3%

NYI: 49.7%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.24

NYI: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	35	32	3	91.4%	3.45	1	0.45
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	27	23	4	85.2%	2.54	1	-1.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WPG at home vs NYI: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-13	WPG 5 - 4 NYI	WPG	WPG
2025-10-13	NYI 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	NYI
2025-03-04	NYI 3 - 2 WPG	NYI	WPG
2025-02-07	WPG 4 - 3 NYI	WPG	WPG
2024-03-23	NYI 6 - 3 WPG	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	14	0	0.68
1	NYI	13	0	0.90
2	WPG	13	1	1.11
2	NYI	15	0	0.61
3	WPG	10	0	0.75
3	NYI	26	1	1.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 3 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0