Dallas Stars at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-02-08 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 8 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 54.6%

DAL: 45.4%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.81

DAL: 4.96

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 42%

SJS

Vitek Vanecek - 17-9-3 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Vitek Vanecek	34	26	8	76.5%	3.41	2	-4.59
DAL	Casey DeSmith	27	24	3	88.9%	2.78	2	-0.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • SJS at home vs DAL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	SJS 5 - 4 DAL	SJS	DAL
2025-12-18	SJS 3 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2025-12-05	DAL 4 - 1 SJS	DAL	DAL
2025-02-08	SJS 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	SJS
2024-11-20	DAL 5 - 2 SJS	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	8	1	0.84
1	DAL	22	2	1.54
2	SJS	18	0	0.98
2	DAL	13	0	0.60
3	SJS	16	1	0.97
3	DAL	18	0	1.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 7.8

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 3 - 8 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.8 - 5.0