Utah Hockey Club at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2025-02-09 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 4 - 5 Utah Hockey Club
🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 62.1%
UTA: 37.9%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.30
UTA: 2.67
Total Goals
Median: 5.6
Over 5.5: 52%
Over 6.5: 38%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
UTA
Karel Vejmelka - 38-20-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | WSH | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.878 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.889 | 0.923 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.68 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 25% • WSH at home vs UTA: 0-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-26 | UTA 4 - 7 WSH | WSH | UTA |
| 2026-03-03 | WSH 2 - 3 UTA | UTA | WSH |
| 2025-02-09 | WSH 4 - 5 UTA | UTA | WSH |
| 2024-11-18 | UTA 2 - 6 WSH | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:10 | UTA | Goal |
| 1 | 01:42 | UTA | Goal |
| 1 | 03:47 | UTA | Goal |
| 1 | 07:07 | UTA | Goal |
| 1 | 12:38 | UTA | Goal |
| 2 | 02:47 | UTA | Goal |
| 3 | 04:49 | UTA | Goal |
| 3 | 18:29 | WSH | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 62.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 4 - 5 Utah Hockey Club
Expected: 3.3 - 2.7
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.