Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-02-09 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 47.5%
TBL: 52.5%
Expected Goals
MTL: 2.91
TBL: 3.77
Total Goals
Median: 7.4
Over 5.5: 76%
Over 6.5: 64%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | MTL | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.928 | 0.905 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • MTL at home vs TBL: 2-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | MTL 2 - 1 TBL | MTL | TBL |
| 2026-03-31 | TBL 1 - 4 MTL | MTL | TBL |
| 2025-12-28 | TBL 5 - 4 MTL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-12-09 | MTL 1 - 6 TBL | TBL | MTL |
| 2025-02-09 | MTL 3 - 5 TBL | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:56 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 10:28 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 18:53 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 01:05 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 06:43 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 12:45 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 09:19 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:44 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 52.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 3 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 2.9 - 3.8
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