Edmonton Oilers at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-02-22 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 6 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 47.5%

EDM: 52.5%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.35

EDM: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	18	15	3	83.3%	2.91	2	-0.09
EDM	Stuart Skinner	32	26	6	81.2%	3.80	3	-2.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PHI at home vs EDM: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	EDM 2 - 5 PHI	PHI	EDM
2025-11-12	PHI 1 - 2 EDM	EDM	PHI
2025-02-22	PHI 6 - 3 EDM	PHI	EDM
2024-10-15	EDM 4 - 3 PHI	EDM	EDM
2024-01-02	EDM 5 - 2 PHI	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	13	1	0.76
1	EDM	14	1	1.04
2	PHI	15	1	1.61
2	EDM	11	1	0.74
3	PHI	14	1	1.44
3	EDM	15	0	1.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 6 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.2