Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-02-22 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 8 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 53.2%

WSH: 46.8%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.36

WSH: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 36% • PIT at home vs WSH: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	WSH
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	WSH
2025-02-22	PIT 3 - 8 WSH	WSH	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	18	0	1.25
1	WSH	11	1	0.63
2	PIT	14	1	1.15
2	WSH	16	0	0.82
3	PIT	19	1	1.30
3	WSH	21	1	1.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 8 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.4 - 3.3