Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-02-22 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 8 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 51.1%

WSH: 48.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.16

WSH: 3.40

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	30	22	8	73.3%	3.43	2	-4.57
WSH	Logan Thompson	32	29	3	90.6%	3.69	2	0.69

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • PIT at home vs WSH: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-07	WSH 5 - 3 PIT	WSH	PIT
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	WSH
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	18	0	1.25
1	WSH	11	1	0.63
2	PIT	14	1	1.15
2	WSH	16	0	0.82
3	PIT	19	1	1.30
3	WSH	21	1	1.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 8 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.2 - 3.4