New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-02-22 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 8 - 2 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 48.8%

NYR: 51.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.33

NYR: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	28	26	2	92.9%	2.59	1	0.59
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	33	25	8	75.8%	2.71	2	-5.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • BUF at home vs NYR: 2-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	NYR 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-01-08	NYR 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-10-09	BUF 0 - 4 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-02-22	BUF 8 - 2 NYR	BUF	NYR
2024-12-11	BUF 2 - 3 NYR	NYR	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	16	1	1.01
1	NYR	15	0	0.69
2	BUF	18	1	1.30
2	NYR	13	0	0.65
3	BUF	8	0	0.39
3	NYR	17	1	1.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 8 - 2 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0