Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-02-22 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 41.6%

CAR: 58.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.05

CAR: 4.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs CAR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	TOR 3 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-12-04	CAR 1 - 5 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-11-09	TOR 4 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-04-13	CAR 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-02-22	TOR 6 - 3 CAR	TOR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	1	2.24
1	CAR	19	0	0.82
2	TOR	11	0	0.93
2	CAR	16	0	0.99
3	TOR	6	3	2.64
3	CAR	24	0	1.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.1 - 4.3