Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-02-22 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (67% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 32.9%

CAR: 67.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.85

CAR: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 38%

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	35	32	3	91.4%	3.40	0	0.40
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	24	18	6	75.0%	5.81	4	-0.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs CAR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	TOR 3 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-12-04	CAR 1 - 5 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-11-09	TOR 4 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-04-13	CAR 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-02-22	TOR 6 - 3 CAR	TOR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	14	1	2.24
1	CAR	19	0	0.82
2	TOR	11	0	0.93
2	CAR	16	0	0.99
3	TOR	6	3	2.64
3	CAR	24	0	1.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.9 - 3.0