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Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-02-22 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes
🚨 Upset Win (65% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability
TOR: 35.3%
CAR: 64.7%
Expected Goals
TOR: 2.74
CAR: 3.43
Total Goals
Median: 6.2
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
CAR
Brandon Bussi - 31-6-2 | 0.894 SV% | 2.47 GAA
StatTORCAR
Season SV%0.9140.901
Last 5 SV%0.8630.887
SV% vs Opponent0.9170.848
GAA2.742.33
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs CAR: 1-4
DateScoreWinnerModel Pick
2026-03-20TOR 3 - 4 CARCARCAR
2025-12-04CAR 1 - 5 TORTORCAR
2025-11-09TOR 4 - 5 CARCARCAR
2025-04-13CAR 1 - 4 TORTORCAR
2025-02-22TOR 6 - 3 CARTORCAR

⚡ In-Game Win Probability

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0:00 20:00 40:00 60:00 In-Game Win Probability Home Win Probability Game Time (minutes)

Goals

PeriodTimeTeamScorer
102:50TORGoal
103:29TORGoal
106:39TORGoal
115:06TORGoal
312:25TORGoal
314:46TORGoal
315:06TORGoal
318:37TORGoal
319:40TORGoal

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 64.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes
Expected: 2.7 - 3.4