Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-02-22 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 61.8%

MTL: 38.2%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.43

MTL: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	25	20	5	80.0%	2.36	1	-2.64
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	27	25	2	92.6%	2.53	0	0.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • OTT at home vs MTL: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-11	OTT 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	OTT
2026-01-17	OTT 5 - 6 MTL	MTL	OTT
2025-12-02	MTL 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-01	MTL 4 - 3 OTT	MTL	OTT
2025-04-11	OTT 5 - 2 MTL	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	20	0	0.72
1	MTL	14	0	0.71
2	OTT	15	0	0.65
2	MTL	11	1	0.86
3	OTT	16	0	1.16
3	MTL	13	0	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7