Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-02-23 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 3 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 40.4%

COL: 59.6%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.92

COL: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	29	28	1	96.6%	1.92	1	0.92
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	25	22	3	88.0%	2.79	2	-0.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • STL at home vs COL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	STL 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-04-05	COL 2 - 3 STL	STL	COL
2025-12-31	COL 6 - 1 STL	COL	COL
2025-04-05	STL 5 - 4 COL	STL	COL
2025-03-29	COL 1 - 2 STL	STL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	14	0	0.64
1	COL	11	0	0.53
2	STL	13	2	1.49
2	COL	12	1	0.61
3	STL	9	0	0.66
3	COL	18	0	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 3 - 1 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3