Toronto Maple Leafs at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions
2025-02-23 • United Center
Chicago Blackhawks 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CHI: 54.9%
TOR: 45.1%
Expected Goals
CHI: 2.91
TOR: 3.53
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CHI
Spencer Knight - 16-16-7 | 0.908 SV% | 2.62 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | CHI | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.909 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.864 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.917 | 0.912 |
| GAA | 2.63 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CHI at home vs TOR: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | TOR 3 - 2 CHI | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-11-15 | CHI 3 - 2 TOR | CHI | CHI |
| 2025-02-23 | CHI 2 - 5 TOR | TOR | CHI |
| 2024-12-02 | TOR 4 - 1 CHI | TOR | TOR |
| 2023-11-24 | CHI 4 - 3 TOR | CHI | CHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19:49 | CHI | Goal |
| 2 | 07:09 | CHI | Goal |
| 2 | 09:45 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 19:45 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 19:53 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 12:07 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 18:28 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Chicago Blackhawks 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 2.9 - 3.5