Vegas Golden Knights at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2025-02-24 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 5 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

LAK: 47.8%

VGK: 52.2%

Expected Goals

LAK: 3.16

VGK: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	23	21	2	91.3%	1.90	2	-0.10
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	19	14	5	73.7%	2.17	1	-2.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • LAK at home vs VGK: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	LAK 4 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-02-05	VGK 4 - 1 LAK	VGK	VGK
2026-01-14	LAK 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-10-08	VGK 5 - 6 LAK	LAK	VGK
2025-03-09	VGK 5 - 6 LAK	LAK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	12	0	0.59
1	VGK	11	1	0.80
2	LAK	13	0	0.48
2	VGK	10	0	0.45
3	LAK	16	1	1.10
3	VGK	11	1	0.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Los Angeles Kings 5 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9