Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions
2025-02-25 • TD Garden
Boston Bruins 4 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BOS: 59.2%
TOR: 40.8%
Expected Goals
BOS: 3.23
TOR: 3.02
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BOS
Jeremy Swayman - 22-12-3 | 0.903 SV% | 2.92 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | BOS | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.903 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.889 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.909 | — |
| GAA | 2.84 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • BOS at home vs TOR: 6-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-11 | BOS 5 - 3 TOR | BOS | BOS |
| 2025-11-08 | TOR 3 - 5 BOS | BOS | TOR |
| 2025-02-25 | BOS 4 - 5 TOR | TOR | BOS |
| 2025-01-04 | TOR 6 - 4 BOS | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-11-05 | TOR 4 - 0 BOS | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:29 | BOS | Goal |
| 1 | 13:59 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 10:00 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 13:52 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 00:59 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 06:40 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 10:33 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 19:14 | BOS | Goal |
| 4 | 04:08 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Boston Bruins 4 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.2 - 3.0