Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-02-25 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

BOS: 52.7%

TOR: 47.3%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.29

TOR: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	29	24	5	82.8%	3.70	2	-1.30
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	36	32	4	88.9%	4.47	3	0.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BOS at home vs TOR: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	23	2	1.75
1	TOR	11	0	0.68
2	BOS	20	0	1.52
2	TOR	14	0	0.73
3	BOS	11	0	0.77
3	TOR	21	1	1.80
4	BOS	3	1	0.43
4	TOR	3	1	0.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 4 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2