Carolina Hurricanes at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-02-25 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 0 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (62% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 38.5%

CAR: 61.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.03

CAR: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	20	20	0	100.0%	3.00	2	3.00
CAR	Frederik Andersen	18	14	4	77.8%	2.23	2	-1.77

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 57% • MTL at home vs CAR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-29	CAR 6 - 1 MTL	CAR	CAR
2026-05-27	MTL 0 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-25	MTL 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-05-23	CAR 3 - 2 MTL	CAR	CAR
2026-05-21	CAR 2 - 6 MTL	MTL	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	12	0	0.69
1	CAR	7	0	0.45
2	MTL	3	0	0.17
2	CAR	14	1	0.93
3	MTL	12	2	1.38
3	CAR	23	1	1.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 0 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2