Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-02-25 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 6 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

PHI: 53.5%

PIT: 46.5%

Expected Goals

PHI: 4.18

PIT: 2.25

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	24	23	1	95.8%	3.56	5	2.56
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	38	32	6	84.2%	3.15	1	-2.85

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • PHI at home vs PIT: 6-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PHI
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PIT
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-20	PIT 0 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	16	0	0.83
1	PIT	9	2	1.01
2	PHI	18	1	1.55
2	PIT	14	1	1.41
3	PHI	12	0	0.77
3	PIT	12	2	1.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 6 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 4.2 - 2.2