Calgary Flames at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2025-02-25 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 1 - 3 Calgary Flames
🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 61.7%
CGY: 38.3%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.29
CGY: 3.07
Total Goals
Median: 7.2
Over 5.5: 75%
Over 6.5: 61%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 23-29-3 | 0.899 SV% | 3.01 GAA
| Stat | WSH | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.923 | — |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs CGY: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | WSH 7 - 3 CGY | WSH | WSH |
| 2026-01-23 | CGY 1 - 3 WSH | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-02-25 | WSH 1 - 3 CGY | CGY | WSH |
| 2025-01-28 | CGY 1 - 3 WSH | WSH | CGY |
| 2024-03-18 | CGY 2 - 5 WSH | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:47 | CGY | Goal |
| 1 | 16:42 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 04:52 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 15:32 | CGY | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 1 - 3 Calgary Flames
Expected: 3.3 - 3.1
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