Calgary Flames at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-02-25 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 3 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

WSH: 48.9%

CGY: 51.1%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.18

CGY: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs CGY: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	WSH 7 - 3 CGY	WSH	WSH
2026-01-23	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-02-25	WSH 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	CGY
2025-01-28	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	CGY
2024-03-18	CGY 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	11	0	0.39
1	CGY	20	2	1.25
2	WSH	22	0	1.15
2	CGY	5	2	0.68
3	WSH	19	0	0.90
3	CGY	13	0	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0