New York Rangers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-02-25 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 5 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 55.5%

NYR: 44.5%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.42

NYR: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	18	13	5	72.2%	1.80	1	-3.20
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	37	36	1	97.3%	3.12	0	2.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYI at home vs NYR: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	NYR 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYR
2026-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-12-27	NYI 2 - 0 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-11-08	NYR 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYR
2025-04-10	NYI 2 - 9 NYR	NYR	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	16	0	0.48
1	NYR	13	0	0.35
2	NYI	26	0	1.39
2	NYR	13	0	0.86
3	NYI	20	0	1.25
3	NYR	8	1	0.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 1 - 5 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0