Detroit Red Wings at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-02-25 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 53.0%

DET: 47.0%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.05

DET: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 37%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	16	13	3	81.2%	1.36	0	-1.64
DET	Cam Talbot	24	22	2	91.7%	1.96	0	-0.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MIN at home vs DET: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	DET 4 - 5 MIN	MIN	DET
2026-01-22	MIN 4 - 3 DET	MIN	MIN
2025-02-25	MIN 2 - 3 DET	DET	MIN
2025-02-22	DET 3 - 4 MIN	MIN	DET
2023-12-27	MIN 6 - 3 DET	MIN	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	MIN	14	0.92
1	DET	19	0.92
2	MIN	13	0.60
2	DET	7	0.36
3	MIN	16	0.43
3	DET	3	0.09

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 2 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0