Winnipeg Jets at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-02-26 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 54.4%

WPG: 45.6%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.32

WPG: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 36%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	40	36	4	90.0%	5.59	5	1.59
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	24	23	1	95.8%	2.10	0	1.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • OTT at home vs WPG: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	OTT 4 - 2 WPG	OTT	OTT
2025-12-15	WPG 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-02-26	OTT 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	OTT
2024-12-28	WPG 4 - 2 OTT	WPG	OTT
2024-03-30	WPG 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	18	0	1.25
1	WPG	15	1	1.31
2	OTT	13	0	0.50
2	WPG	28	2	2.47
3	OTT	6	0	0.36
3	WPG	12	2	1.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2