Winnipeg Jets at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-02-26 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 51.7%

WPG: 48.3%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.12

WPG: 3.67

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 38%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • OTT at home vs WPG: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	OTT 4 - 2 WPG	OTT	OTT
2025-12-15	WPG 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-02-26	OTT 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	OTT
2024-12-28	WPG 4 - 2 OTT	WPG	OTT
2024-03-30	WPG 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	18	0	1.25
1	WPG	15	1	1.31
2	OTT	13	0	0.50
2	WPG	28	2	2.47
3	OTT	6	0	0.36
3	WPG	12	2	1.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.1 - 3.7