New Jersey Devils at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-02-26 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 1 New Jersey Devils

Win Probability

COL: 56.4%

NJD: 43.6%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.97

NJD: 2.50

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	23	22	1	95.7%	2.25	0	1.25
NJD	Jake Allen	37	32	5	86.5%	3.84	1	-1.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • COL at home vs NJD: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-28	COL 8 - 4 NJD	COL	COL
2025-10-26	NJD 4 - 3 COL	NJD	COL
2025-02-26	COL 5 - 1 NJD	COL	COL
2024-12-08	NJD 0 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2024-02-06	NJD 5 - 3 COL	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	24	0	1.72
1	NJD	11	0	0.89
2	COL	17	0	0.87
2	NJD	14	0	0.81
3	COL	21	1	1.25
3	NJD	10	0	0.55

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 1 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 4.0 - 2.5