Calgary Flames at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-02-27 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 0 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

TBL: 63.6%

CGY: 36.4%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.71

CGY: 2.54

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs CGY: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	CGY 4 - 3 TBL	CGY	CGY
2025-11-26	TBL 5 - 1 CGY	TBL	TBL
2025-02-27	TBL 3 - 0 CGY	TBL	TBL
2024-12-12	CGY 3 - 8 TBL	TBL	CGY
2024-03-07	TBL 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	11	0	0.70
1	CGY	13	0	0.56
2	TBL	9	0	0.71
2	CGY	18	1	1.21
3	TBL	10	2	2.23
3	CGY	19	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 0 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.7 - 2.5