Chicago Blackhawks at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-02-27 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 7 - 5 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

VGK: 87.5%

CHI: 12.5%

Expected Goals

VGK: 4.58

CHI: 2.47

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 40%

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	22	17	5	77.3%	2.12	2	-2.88
CHI	Petr Mrazek	33	26	7	78.8%	3.79	2	-3.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs CHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	VGK 4 - 0 CHI	VGK	VGK
2026-01-04	CHI 3 - 2 VGK	CHI	VGK
2025-12-02	VGK 4 - 3 CHI	VGK	VGK
2025-03-28	CHI 3 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-02-27	VGK 7 - 5 CHI	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	17	1	1.52
1	CHI	9	1	0.82
2	VGK	14	1	1.50
2	CHI	10	0	0.38
3	VGK	14	0	0.78
3	CHI	13	1	0.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 87.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 7 - 5 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 4.6 - 2.5