Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-03-01 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 51.8%

TBL: 48.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.94

TBL: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs TBL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-22	WSH 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	WSH
2025-11-08	TBL 3 - 2 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-14	WSH 3 - 2 TBL	WSH	WSH
2025-03-01	WSH 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	WSH
2024-11-27	TBL 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	9	0	0.64
1	TBL	10	2	1.34
2	WSH	18	0	0.94
2	TBL	8	1	0.61
3	WSH	12	0	0.86
3	TBL	5	1	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2