Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-03-01 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 1 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

WSH: 49.1%

TBL: 50.9%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.35

TBL: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	19	16	3	84.2%	2.99	4	-0.01
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	21	20	1	95.2%	2.44	0	1.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • WSH at home vs TBL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-22	WSH 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	WSH
2025-11-08	TBL 3 - 2 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-14	WSH 3 - 2 TBL	WSH	WSH
2025-03-01	WSH 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-27	TBL 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	9	0	0.64
1	TBL	10	2	1.34
2	WSH	18	0	0.94
2	TBL	8	1	0.61
3	WSH	12	0	0.86
3	TBL	5	1	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 1 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.3 - 3.3