Calgary Flames at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-03-01 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 3 - 0 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

FLA: 59.7%

CGY: 40.3%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.44

CGY: 2.62

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	23	23	0	100.0%	1.63	2	1.63
CGY	Dan Vladar	42	39	3	92.9%	3.95	1	0.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • FLA at home vs CGY: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	CGY 4 - 1 FLA	CGY	CGY
2025-11-28	FLA 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	FLA
2025-03-01	FLA 3 - 0 CGY	FLA	FLA
2024-12-14	CGY 3 - 0 FLA	CGY	CGY
2024-03-09	FLA 5 - 1 CGY	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	20	0	0.95
1	CGY	11	1	0.63
2	FLA	26	1	2.60
2	CGY	9	0	0.29
3	FLA	7	0	0.40
3	CGY	14	1	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 3 - 0 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.4 - 2.6