Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-03-01 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 51.5%

MTL: 48.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.44

MTL: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 53%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	29	25	4	86.2%	3.07	1	-0.93
MTL	Jakub Dobes	25	23	2	92.0%	2.18	1	0.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • BUF at home vs MTL: 4-10

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	MTL 4 - 3 BUF	MTL	MTL
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	1	0.87
1	MTL	16	0	0.93
2	BUF	14	0	0.73
2	MTL	12	0	0.74
3	BUF	12	0	0.58
3	MTL	11	1	1.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.4 - 3.3