Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-03-01 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 54.3%

MTL: 45.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.36

MTL: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • BUF at home vs MTL: 2-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	1	0.87
1	MTL	16	0	0.93
2	BUF	14	0	0.73
2	MTL	12	0	0.74
3	BUF	12	0	0.58
3	MTL	11	1	1.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1