San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-03-01 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 5 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

OTT: 74.8%

SJS: 25.2%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.86

SJS: 2.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

SJS

Vitek Vanecek - 17-9-3 | 0.890 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	37	34	3	91.9%	2.77	1	-0.23
SJS	Vitek Vanecek	32	27	5	84.4%	3.55	3	-1.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • OTT at home vs SJS: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	OTT 7 - 4 SJS	OTT	OTT
2025-11-22	SJS 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-01	OTT 5 - 3 SJS	OTT	OTT
2024-11-27	SJS 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-03-09	SJS 2 - 1 OTT	SJS	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	10	0	0.56
1	SJS	16	0	0.83
2	OTT	22	1	1.67
2	SJS	16	0	1.04
3	OTT	10	2	1.32
3	SJS	22	1	0.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 74.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 5 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.9 - 2.2