Philadelphia Flyers at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions
2025-03-01 • Canada Life Centre
Winnipeg Jets 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers
🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WPG: 63.1%
PHI: 36.9%
Expected Goals
WPG: 3.32
PHI: 2.39
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 13-16-7 | 0.900 SV% | 2.79 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
| Stat | WPG | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.879 | 0.918 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.882 | — |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 20% • WPG at home vs PHI: 0-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-16 | PHI 2 - 5 WPG | WPG | PHI |
| 2025-03-06 | PHI 1 - 4 WPG | WPG | PHI |
| 2025-03-01 | WPG 1 - 2 PHI | PHI | WPG |
| 2024-02-08 | PHI 4 - 1 WPG | PHI | PHI |
| 2024-01-13 | WPG 0 - 2 PHI | PHI | WPG |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:58 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 03:48 | WPG | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | WPG | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 63.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Winnipeg Jets 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 3.3 - 2.4