Philadelphia Flyers at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions
2025-03-01 • Canada Life Centre
Winnipeg Jets 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers
🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WPG: 52.3%
PHI: 47.7%
Expected Goals
WPG: 3.35
PHI: 2.95
Total Goals
Median: 6.8
Over 5.5: 66%
Over 6.5: 52%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 23-23-11 | 0.895 SV% | 2.86 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 29-14-7 | 0.906 SV% | 2.42 GAA
| Stat | WPG | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.867 | 0.914 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.811 | 0.964 |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • WPG at home vs PHI: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | WPG 1 - 7 PHI | PHI | WPG |
| 2025-10-16 | PHI 2 - 5 WPG | WPG | PHI |
| 2025-03-06 | PHI 1 - 4 WPG | WPG | WPG |
| 2025-03-01 | WPG 1 - 2 PHI | PHI | WPG |
| 2024-02-08 | PHI 4 - 1 WPG | PHI | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:58 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 03:48 | WPG | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | WPG | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 52.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Winnipeg Jets 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 3.4 - 3.0
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.