Philadelphia Flyers at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-03-01 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 55.3%

PHI: 44.7%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.22

PHI: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 42%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

PHI

Ivan Fedotov - 6-13-4 | 0.880 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	34	32	2	94.1%	3.36	1	1.36
PHI	Ivan Fedotov	33	32	1	97.0%	3.50	2	2.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 20% • WPG at home vs PHI: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	WPG 1 - 7 PHI	PHI	WPG
2025-10-16	PHI 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	PHI
2025-03-06	PHI 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	PHI
2025-03-01	WPG 1 - 2 PHI	PHI	WPG
2024-02-08	PHI 4 - 1 WPG	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	14	1	1.06
1	PHI	22	0	1.22
2	WPG	18	1	0.92
2	PHI	18	0	0.81
3	WPG	16	0	1.07
3	PHI	7	0	0.31
4	WPG	3	0	0.25
4	PHI	1	0	0.02
5	WPG	3	0	0.21
5	PHI	2	1	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 2.8