New Jersey Devils at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-03-01 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 1 - 3 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

UTA: 51.8%

NJD: 48.2%

Expected Goals

UTA: 2.74

NJD: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 50%

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

NJD

Nico Daws - 3-1-0 | 0.939 SV% | 1.60 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	29	26	3	89.7%	2.48	3	-0.52
NJD	Nico Daws	25	24	1	96.0%	2.30	0	1.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 20% • UTA at home vs NJD: 0-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	NJD 3 - 5 UTA	UTA	NJD
2026-01-03	NJD 4 - 1 UTA	NJD	UTA
2025-12-19	UTA 1 - 2 NJD	NJD	UTA
2025-03-01	UTA 1 - 3 NJD	NJD	UTA
2024-10-14	NJD 3 - 0 UTA	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	13	0	0.60
1	NJD	14	2	1.18
2	UTA	15	0	0.69
2	NJD	15	1	0.79
3	UTA	18	0	1.01
3	NJD	11	0	0.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 1 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 2.7 - 3.1