Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-03-02 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 50.1%

TOR: 49.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.18

TOR: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

PIT

J. Blomqvist

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	J. Blomqvist	33	27	6	81.8%	2.97	1	-3.03
TOR	Joseph Woll	34	29	5	85.3%	2.54	0	-2.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs TOR: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-23	TOR 6 - 3 PIT	TOR	PIT
2025-11-29	PIT 2 - 7 TOR	TOR	PIT
2025-11-03	TOR 4 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-03-02	PIT 5 - 6 TOR	TOR	PIT
2024-12-07	PIT 5 - 2 TOR	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	23	0	1.23
1	TOR	18	0	0.98
2	PIT	18	0	0.94
2	TOR	16	0	1.13
3	PIT	7	0	0.36
3	TOR	13	1	0.78
4	PIT	0	0	0.00
4	TOR	2	0	0.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0