Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-03-02 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

PIT: 46.2%

TOR: 53.8%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.15

TOR: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs TOR: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-23	TOR 6 - 3 PIT	TOR	PIT
2025-11-29	PIT 2 - 7 TOR	TOR	PIT
2025-11-03	TOR 4 - 3 PIT	TOR	TOR
2025-03-02	PIT 5 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-12-07	PIT 5 - 2 TOR	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	23	0	1.23
1	TOR	18	0	0.98
2	PIT	18	0	0.94
2	TOR	16	0	1.13
3	PIT	7	0	0.36
3	TOR	13	1	0.78
4	PIT	0	0	0.00
4	TOR	2	0	0.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2