Toronto Maple Leafs at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2025-03-02 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 50.3%
TOR: 49.7%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.08
TOR: 3.29
Total Goals
Median: 6.8
Over 5.5: 71%
Over 6.5: 58%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
| Stat | PIT | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.886 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.862 | 0.906 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs TOR: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | TOR 6 - 3 PIT | TOR | PIT |
| 2025-11-29 | PIT 2 - 7 TOR | TOR | PIT |
| 2025-11-03 | TOR 4 - 3 PIT | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-03-02 | PIT 5 - 6 TOR | TOR | PIT |
| 2024-12-07 | PIT 5 - 2 TOR | PIT | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02:15 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 04:39 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 10:27 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 11:29 | PIT | Goal |
| 1 | 13:51 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 04:08 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 15:38 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 19:04 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 19:59 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 00:10 | PIT | Goal |
| 4 | 01:00 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 50.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 6 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.1 - 3.3
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