Calgary Flames at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-03-02 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 2 - 1 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

CAR: 78.2%

CGY: 21.8%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.83

CGY: 2.64

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	16	15	1	93.8%	1.80	1	0.80
CGY	Dustin Wolf	33	31	2	93.9%	4.28	1	2.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 90% • CAR at home vs CGY: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	CGY 5 - 4 CAR	CGY	CGY
2025-11-30	CAR 1 - 0 CGY	CAR	CAR
2025-03-02	CAR 2 - 1 CGY	CAR	CAR
2024-10-24	CGY 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2024-03-10	CAR 7 - 2 CGY	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	21	0	1.34
1	CGY	5	0	0.14
2	CAR	12	1	1.26
2	CGY	13	0	0.72
3	CAR	18	0	1.14
3	CGY	14	1	0.95
4	CAR	5	0	0.54
4	CGY	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 78.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 2 - 1 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.8 - 2.6