St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-03-02 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 6 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

DAL: 66.9%

STL: 33.1%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.47

STL: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 45%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	42	39	3	92.9%	3.42	4	0.42
STL	Joel Hofer	21	15	6	71.4%	3.14	6	-2.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • DAL at home vs STL: 6-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	DAL 5 - 4 STL	DAL	DAL
2026-01-27	STL 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2026-01-23	DAL 3 - 2 STL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-18	STL 3 - 1 DAL	STL	STL
2025-03-02	DAL 6 - 3 STL	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	13	2	1.04
1	STL	17	0	0.79
2	DAL	12	1	1.00
2	STL	22	3	1.76
3	DAL	6	3	1.09
3	STL	15	1	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 6 - 3 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1