New Jersey Devils at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-03-02 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 0 New Jersey Devils

Win Probability

VGK: 69.7%

NJD: 30.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.30

NJD: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	25	25	0	100.0%	2.35	0	2.35
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	24	22	2	91.7%	3.15	0	1.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs NJD: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-17	VGK 1 - 2 NJD	NJD	VGK
2025-12-05	NJD 0 - 3 VGK	VGK	NJD
2025-03-02	VGK 2 - 0 NJD	VGK	VGK
2025-02-06	NJD 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2024-03-17	VGK 3 - 1 NJD	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	VGK	14	1.16
1	NJD	17	0.96
2	VGK	17	1.11
2	NJD	10	0.49
3	VGK	13	0.89
3	NJD	15	0.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 0 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.3 - 2.7