Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-03-03 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 5 - 4 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 48.3%

OTT: 51.7%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.47

OTT: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • WSH at home vs OTT: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 OTT	WSH	OTT
2026-01-01	OTT 4 - 3 WSH	OTT	OTT
2025-10-25	WSH 1 - 7 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-03	WSH 5 - 4 OTT	WSH	OTT
2025-01-30	OTT 5 - 4 WSH	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	23	1	1.81
1	OTT	16	0	0.89
2	WSH	15	1	1.16
2	OTT	18	1	1.03
3	WSH	14	0	1.13
3	OTT	18	2	1.81
4	WSH	2	0	0.06
4	OTT	6	0	0.55
5	WSH	3	1	0.95
5	OTT	3	0	0.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 5 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9