Ottawa Senators at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2025-03-03 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 5 - 4 Ottawa Senators
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 60.8%
OTT: 39.2%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.36
OTT: 2.84
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
| Stat | WSH | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.881 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.882 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.875 | 0.923 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.95 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • WSH at home vs OTT: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-01 | OTT 4 - 3 WSH | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-10-25 | WSH 1 - 7 OTT | OTT | WSH |
| 2025-03-03 | WSH 5 - 4 OTT | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-01-30 | OTT 5 - 4 WSH | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-01-16 | OTT 0 - 1 WSH | WSH | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:34 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 01:41 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 12:18 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 06:53 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 18:52 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 12:43 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 08:01 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 01:05 | WSH | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 60.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 5 - 4 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.4 - 2.8