Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-03-03 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

MTL: 52.0%

BUF: 48.0%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.58

BUF: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MTL at home vs BUF: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	0	1.41
1	BUF	14	2	1.56
2	MTL	8	0	0.78
2	BUF	23	3	2.17
3	MTL	9	1	0.79
3	BUF	24	0	1.25
4	MTL	1	0	0.03
4	BUF	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.6 - 3.0