Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-03-03 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

MTL: 53.5%

BUF: 46.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.42

BUF: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

BUF

James Reimer - 10-10-2 | 0.896 SV% | 3.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	36	33	3	91.7%	4.98	5	1.98
BUF	James Reimer	20	16	4	80.0%	3.01	1	-0.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • MTL at home vs BUF: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	MTL 4 - 3 BUF	MTL	MTL
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	14	0	1.41
1	BUF	14	2	1.56
2	MTL	8	0	0.78
2	BUF	23	3	2.17
3	MTL	9	1	0.79
3	BUF	24	0	1.25
4	MTL	1	0	0.03
4	BUF	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1