Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-03-03 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

FLA: 64.9%

TBL: 35.1%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.13

TBL: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • FLA at home vs TBL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	FLA
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	13	0	0.60
1	TBL	14	1	0.92
2	FLA	17	0	0.82
2	TBL	15	0	0.46
3	FLA	17	0	0.76
3	TBL	21	3	2.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2