New York Islanders at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-03-03 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 0 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 42.9%

NYI: 57.1%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.96

NYI: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYR at home vs NYI: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	NYR 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYR
2026-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-12-27	NYI 2 - 0 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-11-08	NYR 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYR
2025-04-10	NYI 2 - 9 NYR	NYR	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	15	0	0.98
1	NYI	12	1	0.71
2	NYR	14	0	0.81
2	NYI	11	1	0.77
3	NYR	19	3	2.26
3	NYI	10	0	0.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 4 - 0 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1