New York Islanders at New York Rangers NHL Predictions
2025-03-03 • Madison Square Garden
New York Rangers 4 - 0 New York Islanders
🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYR: 45.5%
NYI: 54.5%
Expected Goals
NYR: 2.68
NYI: 2.88
Total Goals
Median: 4.6
Over 5.5: 36%
Over 6.5: 24%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 25-19-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.50 GAA
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 29-24-2 | 0.906 SV% | 2.68 GAA
| Stat | NYR | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.851 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.900 | 0.981 |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.55 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYR at home vs NYI: 4-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | NYR 1 - 2 NYI | NYI | NYR |
| 2026-01-28 | NYI 5 - 2 NYR | NYI | NYR |
| 2025-12-27 | NYI 2 - 0 NYR | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-11-08 | NYR 0 - 5 NYI | NYI | NYR |
| 2025-04-10 | NYI 2 - 9 NYR | NYR | NYI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15:03 | NYR | Goal |
| 1 | 19:15 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 03:43 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 14:51 | NYR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 5.6
Score Breakdown
New York Rangers 4 - 0 New York Islanders
Expected: 2.7 - 2.9
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