San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-03-03 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 62.9%

SJS: 37.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.67

SJS: 2.69

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 50%

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

SJS

Alexandar Georgiev - 15-26-4 | 0.875 SV% | 3.71 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	25	21	4	84.0%	4.64	6	0.64
SJS	Alexandar Georgiev	31	28	3	90.3%	5.47	3	2.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs SJS: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	SJS 4 - 1 TOR	SJS	SJS
2025-12-11	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	TOR
2025-03-27	SJS 6 - 5 TOR	SJS	SJS
2025-03-03	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	TOR
2024-01-09	TOR 7 - 1 SJS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	0	1.05
1	SJS	11	1	0.75
2	TOR	17	1	2.12
2	SJS	12	2	1.08
3	TOR	5	1	0.60
3	SJS	18	1	1.02
4	TOR	6	0	0.58
4	SJS	3	0	0.27
5	TOR	4	1	1.12
5	SJS	4	2	1.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.7 - 2.7