San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-03-03 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

TOR: 47.4%

SJS: 52.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.95

SJS: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs SJS: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	SJS 4 - 1 TOR	SJS	SJS
2025-12-11	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	TOR
2025-03-27	SJS 6 - 5 TOR	SJS	TOR
2025-03-03	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	SJS
2024-01-09	TOR 7 - 1 SJS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	0	1.05
1	SJS	11	1	0.75
2	TOR	17	1	2.12
2	SJS	12	2	1.08
3	TOR	5	1	0.60
3	SJS	18	1	1.02
4	TOR	6	0	0.58
4	SJS	3	0	0.27
5	TOR	4	1	1.12
5	SJS	4	2	1.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 7.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.9 - 3.2