San Jose Sharks at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-03-04 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 6 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 67.3%

SJS: 32.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.69

SJS: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

SJS

Alexandar Georgiev - 15-26-4 | 0.875 SV% | 3.71 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	28	22	6	78.6%	3.49	3	-2.51
SJS	Alexandar Georgiev	22	20	2	90.9%	1.92	1	-0.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs SJS: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-19	SJS 0 - 5 BUF	BUF	SJS
2026-03-10	BUF 6 - 3 SJS	BUF	BUF
2025-03-04	BUF 2 - 6 SJS	SJS	BUF
2024-11-23	SJS 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2024-01-27	SJS 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	11	0	0.81
1	SJS	20	1	1.78
2	BUF	12	1	0.67
2	SJS	15	1	0.82
3	BUF	9	0	0.44
3	SJS	12	1	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 6 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.7 - 2.7