Carolina Hurricanes at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-03-04 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

Win Probability

DET: 44.8%

CAR: 55.2%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.63

CAR: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

DET

Alex Lyon - 14-9-1 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Alex Lyon	30	28	2	93.3%	3.81	3	1.81
CAR	Frederik Andersen	25	24	1	96.0%	3.29	2	2.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • DET at home vs CAR: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	CAR 5 - 2 DET	CAR	CAR
2026-01-12	DET 4 - 3 CAR	DET	CAR
2025-12-27	CAR 5 - 2 DET	CAR	CAR
2025-04-04	DET 5 - 3 CAR	DET	CAR
2025-03-14	CAR 4 - 2 DET	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	13	1	1.40
1	CAR	18	1	1.62
2	DET	12	1	1.15
2	CAR	20	2	1.20
3	DET	15	0	0.75
3	CAR	13	0	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 1 - 2 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.6 - 2.9