Columbus Blue Jackets at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-03-04 • Amalie Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 55.4%
CBJ: 44.6%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.83
CBJ: 2.64
Total Goals
Median: 6.9
Over 5.5: 72%
Over 6.5: 59%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
CBJ
Jet Greaves - 26-19-9 | 0.908 SV% | 2.60 GAA
| Stat | TBL | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.909 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.888 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.871 | 0.870 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.62 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs CBJ: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | TBL 2 - 5 CBJ | CBJ | TBL |
| 2026-01-24 | CBJ 8 - 5 TBL | CBJ | TBL |
| 2025-10-18 | CBJ 3 - 2 TBL | CBJ | CBJ |
| 2025-03-04 | TBL 6 - 2 CBJ | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-12-17 | TBL 5 - 3 CBJ | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:30 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 01:37 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 17:20 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 01:27 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 06:36 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 10:49 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 09:44 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:53 | TBL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 55.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets
Expected: 3.8 - 2.6
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