Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2025-03-04 • Wells Fargo Center
Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 6 Calgary Flames
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 61.4%
CGY: 38.6%
Expected Goals
PHI: 3.48
CGY: 3.14
Total Goals
Median: 7.3
Over 5.5: 73%
Over 6.5: 62%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 29-14-7 | 0.906 SV% | 2.42 GAA
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 23-29-3 | 0.899 SV% | 3.01 GAA
| Stat | PHI | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.914 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.955 |
| GAA | 2.40 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs CGY: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | CGY 5 - 1 PHI | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-11-02 | PHI 1 - 2 CGY | CGY | PHI |
| 2025-03-04 | PHI 3 - 6 CGY | CGY | PHI |
| 2024-10-12 | CGY 6 - 3 PHI | CGY | CGY |
| 2024-01-06 | PHI 3 - 2 CGY | PHI | PHI |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 6 Calgary Flames
Expected: 3.5 - 3.1
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