Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-03-04 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 6 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 62.9%

CGY: 37.1%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.36

CGY: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	34	28	6	82.4%	3.27	2	-2.73
CGY	Dustin Wolf	29	26	3	89.7%	3.17	2	0.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PHI at home vs CGY: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-31	CGY 5 - 1 PHI	CGY	CGY
2025-11-02	PHI 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	PHI
2025-03-04	PHI 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	PHI
2024-10-12	CGY 6 - 3 PHI	CGY	CGY
2024-01-06	PHI 3 - 2 CGY	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	16	1	1.07
1	CGY	18	0	0.93
2	PHI	18	0	0.77
2	CGY	15	1	1.12
3	PHI	10	1	1.32
3	CGY	16	1	1.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 6 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0