Calgary Flames at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2025-03-04 • Wells Fargo Center
Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 6 Calgary Flames
🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 61.7%
CGY: 38.3%
Expected Goals
PHI: 3.27
CGY: 2.76
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
| Stat | PHI | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.918 | 0.877 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.955 |
| GAA | 2.40 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs CGY: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | CGY 5 - 1 PHI | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-11-02 | PHI 1 - 2 CGY | CGY | PHI |
| 2025-03-04 | PHI 3 - 6 CGY | CGY | PHI |
| 2024-10-12 | CGY 6 - 3 PHI | CGY | CGY |
| 2024-01-06 | PHI 3 - 2 CGY | PHI | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:40 | CGY | Goal |
| 1 | 08:13 | CGY | Goal |
| 1 | 09:32 | CGY | Goal |
| 1 | 09:54 | CGY | Goal |
| 1 | 17:11 | CGY | Goal |
| 1 | 17:29 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 16:33 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 10:43 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 18:59 | CGY | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 6 Calgary Flames
Expected: 3.3 - 2.8