Winnipeg Jets at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-03-04 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 41.7%

WPG: 58.3%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.00

WPG: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYI at home vs WPG: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-13	WPG 5 - 4 NYI	WPG	WPG
2025-10-13	NYI 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	NYI
2025-03-04	NYI 3 - 2 WPG	NYI	WPG
2025-02-07	WPG 4 - 3 NYI	WPG	WPG
2024-03-23	NYI 6 - 3 WPG	NYI	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	25	0	1.04
1	WPG	15	0	0.54
2	NYI	9	1	0.62
2	WPG	20	2	1.32
3	NYI	10	0	0.43
3	WPG	11	1	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3