Winnipeg Jets at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-03-04 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Win (65% underdog)

Win Probability

NYI: 35.1%

WPG: 64.9%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.75

WPG: 3.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	28	26	2	92.9%	2.72	3	0.72
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	29	26	3	89.7%	2.09	1	-0.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs WPG: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-13	WPG 5 - 4 NYI	WPG	WPG
2025-10-13	NYI 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	NYI
2025-03-04	NYI 3 - 2 WPG	NYI	WPG
2025-02-07	WPG 4 - 3 NYI	WPG	WPG
2024-03-23	NYI 6 - 3 WPG	NYI	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	25	0	1.04
1	WPG	15	0	0.54
2	NYI	9	1	0.62
2	WPG	20	2	1.32
3	NYI	10	0	0.43
3	WPG	11	1	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 2.8 - 3.7