New Jersey Devils at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-03-04 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Win Probability

DAL: 50.8%

NJD: 49.2%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.29

NJD: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Casey DeSmith	28	25	3	89.3%	3.15	2	0.15
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	21	17	4	81.0%	2.97	5	-1.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 20% • DAL at home vs NJD: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	DAL 4 - 6 NJD	NJD	DAL
2025-12-03	NJD 0 - 3 DAL	DAL	NJD
2025-03-04	DAL 4 - 3 NJD	DAL	DAL
2025-02-22	NJD 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	NJD
2024-03-14	DAL 2 - 6 NJD	NJD	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	12	1	1.15
1	NJD	14	1	0.68
2	DAL	11	3	1.34
2	NJD	17	0	0.93
3	DAL	7	1	0.48
3	NJD	15	1	1.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2