Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-03-04 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Win Probability

COL: 70.4%

PIT: 29.6%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.49

PIT: 2.39

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	33	32	1	97.0%	2.90	2	1.90
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	25	21	4	84.0%	4.14	4	0.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • COL at home vs PIT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	PIT 2 - 6 COL	COL	COL
2026-03-16	COL 2 - 7 PIT	PIT	COL
2025-03-04	COL 4 - 1 PIT	COL	COL
2024-12-10	PIT 2 - 6 COL	COL	COL
2024-03-24	COL 5 - 4 PIT	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	15	1	1.01
1	PIT	16	1	1.37
2	COL	13	1	1.00
2	PIT	15	1	1.23
3	COL	15	2	2.13
3	PIT	13	0	0.30

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.5 - 2.4