Pittsburgh Penguins at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions
2025-03-04 • Ball Arena
Colorado Avalanche 4 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
COL: 61.1%
PIT: 38.9%
Expected Goals
COL: 3.65
PIT: 2.26
Total Goals
Median: 4.8
Over 5.5: 38%
Over 6.5: 24%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 30-6-6 | 0.920 SV% | 2.07 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 23-17-9 | 0.888 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | COL | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.919 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.951 | 0.886 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.865 | 0.692 |
| GAA | 2.13 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • COL at home vs PIT: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | PIT 2 - 6 COL | COL | COL |
| 2026-03-16 | COL 2 - 7 PIT | PIT | COL |
| 2025-03-04 | COL 4 - 1 PIT | COL | COL |
| 2024-12-10 | PIT 2 - 6 COL | COL | COL |
| 2024-03-24 | COL 5 - 4 PIT | COL | COL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 06:36 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 18:04 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 15:51 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:52 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 19:52 | COL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 61.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Colorado Avalanche 4 - 1 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 3.6 - 2.3
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.