Washington Capitals at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-03-05 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

NYR: 55.7%

WSH: 44.3%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.40

WSH: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	26	23	3	88.5%	2.94	1	-0.06
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	17	15	2	88.2%	2.70	2	0.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYR at home vs WSH: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	NYR 8 - 1 WSH	NYR	NYR
2025-12-31	WSH 6 - 3 NYR	WSH	WSH
2025-12-23	WSH 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	WSH
2025-10-12	NYR 0 - 1 WSH	WSH	NYR
2025-03-05	NYR 2 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	12	0	0.82
1	WSH	12	0	0.56
2	NYR	13	1	1.02
2	WSH	11	1	0.89
3	NYR	11	1	0.62
3	WSH	18	0	1.25
4	NYR	3	0	0.25
4	WSH	4	0	0.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7