Ottawa Senators at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2025-03-05 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

CHI: 40.4%

OTT: 59.6%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.67

OTT: 3.42

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	26	22	4	84.6%	2.95	1	-1.05
OTT	Linus Ullmark	20	17	3	85.0%	1.54	1	-1.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CHI at home vs OTT: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-20	OTT 6 - 4 CHI	OTT	OTT
2025-10-28	CHI 7 - 3 OTT	CHI	CHI
2025-04-15	OTT 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	OTT
2025-03-05	CHI 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-03-28	OTT 2 - 0 CHI	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	13	1	0.60
1	OTT	19	1	1.44
2	CHI	11	0	0.25
2	OTT	13	0	0.43
3	CHI	9	0	0.69
3	OTT	12	0	0.80
4	CHI	0	0	0.00
4	OTT	2	0	0.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 3 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.7 - 3.4