Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-03-05 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

VGK: 72.5%

TOR: 27.5%

Expected Goals

VGK: 4.24

TOR: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • VGK at home vs TOR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	TOR 3 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR
2026-01-15	VGK 6 - 5 TOR	VGK	VGK
2025-03-05	VGK 5 - 2 TOR	VGK	VGK
2024-11-20	TOR 3 - 0 VGK	TOR	VGK
2024-02-27	TOR 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	11	1	1.31
1	TOR	23	0	1.03
2	VGK	28	0	1.79
2	TOR	13	1	1.17
3	VGK	10	0	0.63
3	TOR	13	0	0.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 7.1

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 4.2 - 2.8