Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-03-05 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

VGK: 73.4%

TOR: 26.6%

Expected Goals

VGK: 4.02

TOR: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	31	29	2	93.5%	2.83	1	0.83
TOR	Joseph Woll	25	20	5	80.0%	3.73	1	-1.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs TOR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	TOR 3 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-01-15	VGK 6 - 5 TOR	VGK	VGK
2025-03-05	VGK 5 - 2 TOR	VGK	VGK
2024-11-20	TOR 3 - 0 VGK	TOR	TOR
2024-02-27	TOR 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	11	1	1.31
1	TOR	23	0	1.03
2	VGK	28	0	1.79
2	TOR	13	1	1.17
3	VGK	10	0	0.63
3	TOR	13	0	0.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 73.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 4.0 - 2.7