Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-03-06 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

TBL: 56.3%

BUF: 43.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.64

BUF: 3.03

Total Goals

Median: 7.6

Over 5.5: 77%

Over 6.5: 65%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA

BUF

Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TBL at home vs BUF: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	BUF
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Period	Time	Team	Scorer
1	05:01	TBL	Goal
1	05:17	TBL	Goal
1	05:53	TBL	Goal
1	08:20	TBL	Goal
1	17:09	BUF	Goal
2	00:58	TBL	Goal
2	09:35	BUF	Goal
2	12:40	BUF	Goal
2	17:43	BUF	Goal
2	18:46	TBL	Goal
3	01:40	TBL	Goal

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.6 - 3.0