Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-03-06 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

TBL: 55.5%

BUF: 44.5%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.25

BUF: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • TBL at home vs BUF: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-06	BUF 4 - 2 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-03-08	BUF 8 - 7 TBL	BUF	TBL
2026-02-28	TBL 2 - 6 BUF	BUF	TBL
2026-02-03	TBL 4 - 3 BUF	TBL	TBL
2025-04-13	TBL 7 - 4 BUF	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	11	0	0.48
1	BUF	16	0	0.83
2	TBL	17	1	1.28
2	BUF	12	0	0.71
3	TBL	10	1	1.10
3	BUF	16	0	1.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0