Winnipeg Jets at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-03-06 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 51.3%

WPG: 48.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.07

WPG: 3.15

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • PHI at home vs WPG: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	WPG 1 - 7 PHI	PHI	PHI
2025-10-16	PHI 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	PHI
2025-03-06	PHI 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	PHI
2025-03-01	WPG 1 - 2 PHI	PHI	WPG
2024-02-08	PHI 4 - 1 WPG	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	14	0	0.38
1	WPG	16	1	1.26
2	PHI	11	0	0.73
2	WPG	17	0	1.09
3	PHI	15	1	0.84
3	WPG	14	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1